* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 07/31/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 22 24 31 40 46 47 50 52 55 55 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 22 24 31 40 46 47 50 52 55 55 55 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 14 9 8 16 14 15 14 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 1 0 5 4 2 -4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 103 116 120 109 104 96 76 61 51 60 33 42 64 86 91 106 96 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 149 152 153 154 152 149 152 158 157 149 151 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 60 60 58 58 55 55 50 49 48 51 55 62 68 73 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 2 6 13 14 18 27 38 41 39 39 62 44 68 46 59 126 200 MB DIV 51 41 28 18 29 33 64 62 90 92 107 71 31 14 56 99 135 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 1 3 10 LAND (KM) 1681 1700 1745 1784 1839 1942 2069 2213 2337 2367 2322 2180 1908 1639 1553 1585 1670 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.5 12.8 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.6 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 123.7 124.3 124.8 125.5 126.7 127.9 129.1 130.0 130.3 129.8 128.4 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 0 4 11 14 10 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 19 21 27 22 19 21 17 16 18 24 28 15 25 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 44. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 20. 26. 27. 30. 32. 35. 35. 35. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 123.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% .8% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##