* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 49 42 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 49 42 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 54 49 44 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 13 17 21 36 40 39 33 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 4 4 -2 0 2 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 227 233 233 227 227 243 244 227 226 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.7 24.5 23.8 23.5 23.8 23.4 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 108 100 97 100 95 92 94 96 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 61 61 56 55 53 47 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 31 51 55 64 63 50 37 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 0 11 18 39 33 16 -21 -14 -20 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 4 7 2 4 7 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1162 1209 1260 1308 1361 1491 1618 1744 1837 1926 2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.3 124.2 125.2 126.1 127.9 129.5 131.0 132.4 133.8 135.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -23. -32. -40. -50. -60. -69. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.7 122.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##