* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 63 57 44 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 63 57 44 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 55 44 36 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 14 19 28 34 36 35 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 4 3 1 1 0 6 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 213 218 231 238 226 230 246 242 223 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.3 22.9 23.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 110 107 100 98 97 94 89 92 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 63 61 62 58 57 53 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 15 15 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 14 7 40 53 54 73 60 41 22 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -10 -15 1 13 27 23 -8 -8 -9 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 2 5 8 5 8 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1128 1162 1205 1256 1308 1416 1545 1686 1752 1839 1964 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.4 122.4 123.3 124.3 125.2 126.9 128.7 130.3 131.6 133.0 134.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -15. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -31. -40. -50. -60. -69. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.3 121.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##