* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 65 60 49 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 65 60 49 40 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 62 57 47 39 33 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 11 16 17 27 32 33 27 26 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 6 7 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 199 225 227 241 233 225 238 253 242 224 215 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.0 25.9 25.1 24.7 23.9 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 123 122 114 110 101 103 98 95 97 99 100 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 62 64 63 59 58 53 43 34 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 12 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 36 29 30 43 52 59 64 47 46 16 7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 12 0 -4 7 26 19 10 -22 -23 0 -30 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 1 0 3 8 9 7 8 9 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1077 1141 1190 1228 1274 1388 1515 1639 1743 1855 1948 2047 1915 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.2 124.1 126.1 127.9 129.5 130.7 132.1 133.6 135.1 136.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -39. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -35. -44. -52. -61. -69. -75. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.9 120.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 2.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##