* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 79 76 72 60 49 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 79 76 72 60 49 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 72 67 56 47 39 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 6 8 19 25 27 33 33 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 4 0 6 8 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 219 197 238 233 230 222 223 247 254 233 236 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.3 23.1 23.1 23.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 122 118 112 102 102 98 94 92 92 95 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 58 59 60 59 56 56 50 42 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 20 21 19 18 17 16 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 38 35 29 68 73 76 55 49 31 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 0 13 12 -3 29 38 26 -5 -17 -6 -30 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 0 1 2 3 7 4 9 5 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1006 1087 1163 1204 1251 1346 1480 1603 1724 1807 1876 1986 1867 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.2 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.7 121.8 122.7 123.6 125.5 127.5 129.1 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.3 137.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 8 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -23. -28. -34. -39. -44. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -8. -20. -31. -39. -48. -58. -67. -76. -82. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.9 119.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.4% .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##