* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 71 68 60 52 45 42 32 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 71 68 60 52 45 42 32 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 71 68 64 56 47 41 35 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 7 10 14 17 25 29 33 34 31 28 29 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 0 3 2 0 1 1 5 9 15 15 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 194 201 212 233 239 222 215 226 256 254 238 220 209 204 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.6 24.7 24.6 24.3 23.6 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.8 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 128 121 119 110 109 105 97 93 93 94 100 99 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 60 58 58 61 62 58 56 53 48 39 30 25 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 19 19 20 19 17 18 16 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 41 41 49 52 71 73 62 45 33 4 9 4 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 20 1 6 37 44 55 29 2 -13 -17 -28 -14 13 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 6 3 2 6 6 9 8 5 12 5 7 3 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 932 1009 1094 1156 1208 1306 1436 1550 1679 1783 1839 1937 1950 1731 1490 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.2 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.7 122.7 124.6 126.6 128.3 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.6 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -31. -36. -40. -42. -45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -7. -15. -23. -30. -33. -43. -51. -59. -66. -73. -77. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.8 118.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 4.5% .6% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##