* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 72 65 56 49 42 34 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 72 65 56 49 42 34 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 72 68 59 51 44 38 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 10 12 11 22 26 31 40 35 31 32 30 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 3 2 0 4 0 2 2 3 7 10 12 12 5 3 SHEAR DIR 227 221 199 195 214 248 217 214 235 251 258 251 234 230 222 212 216 SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.3 25.8 24.9 24.5 24.5 23.8 23.3 23.1 23.2 23.7 23.5 23.6 23.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 134 133 127 121 112 108 107 100 94 92 94 99 96 97 101 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 60 60 61 61 56 55 55 50 44 33 29 24 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 21 21 21 19 17 17 15 13 11 9 7 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 48 40 48 48 71 78 64 50 33 25 0 0 0 3 -4 200 MB DIV 52 45 20 4 13 29 44 53 20 7 -19 -12 -34 -1 -12 11 2 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 8 5 5 9 7 8 8 14 9 10 4 11 4 9 LAND (KM) 867 935 1013 1087 1156 1274 1393 1518 1651 1761 1813 1900 1953 1796 1670 1492 1242 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.4 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.7 123.9 125.9 127.8 129.5 131.0 132.6 134.3 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -26. -33. -41. -50. -58. -65. -72. -79. -84. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.7 117.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.18 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.57 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 19.6% 15.2% 12.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.1% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.2% 4.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##