* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 77 74 66 58 50 42 36 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 77 74 66 58 50 42 36 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 78 76 72 62 54 45 38 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 10 14 11 9 14 21 24 28 25 26 27 31 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 2 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 7 11 14 10 8 SHEAR DIR 220 210 202 191 193 225 213 203 227 243 252 245 232 229 221 221 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.6 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.6 23.3 23.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 134 132 126 117 110 107 104 97 94 96 98 97 94 98 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 63 60 59 61 60 58 59 55 48 37 33 27 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 16 15 13 10 9 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 55 48 39 67 68 82 52 45 32 31 10 24 2 8 4 200 MB DIV 51 51 51 26 23 50 52 21 31 13 -13 -7 -8 -25 7 -3 9 700-850 TADV 7 10 5 5 10 6 11 8 7 10 6 10 4 6 6 11 5 LAND (KM) 768 839 901 967 1042 1184 1306 1428 1544 1656 1774 1859 1988 1892 1752 1596 1413 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.3 120.4 122.6 124.6 126.5 128.3 129.8 131.2 132.9 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 9 9 7 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -45. -52. -60. -66. -72. -77. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.6 115.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.21 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 22.3% 17.8% 15.5% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 7.9% 6.3% 5.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 23.0% 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.5% 15.4% 10.1% 8.1% 6.0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##