* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 76 75 71 65 60 52 45 39 32 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 76 75 71 65 60 52 45 39 32 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 76 75 72 67 60 52 45 39 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 10 13 9 8 7 7 18 22 23 27 24 29 30 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 2 8 4 10 12 11 SHEAR DIR 253 228 219 221 207 221 246 206 218 233 249 255 227 212 223 218 215 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.0 26.8 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.5 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.6 23.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 134 132 119 113 107 107 102 97 94 97 95 97 96 101 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 61 62 60 59 59 56 54 55 46 40 33 29 24 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 19 19 21 20 20 18 17 16 15 12 10 8 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 61 52 46 59 51 67 48 43 30 21 14 10 11 7 5 200 MB DIV 71 62 47 47 47 34 24 36 32 12 2 -15 -19 -19 -9 -21 -4 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 1 3 6 3 8 5 7 6 6 4 7 5 14 5 LAND (KM) 683 761 830 893 967 1126 1258 1368 1482 1579 1670 1789 1887 1954 1984 1782 1512 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.3 121.5 123.6 125.5 127.3 128.7 129.9 131.3 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 8 8 7 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -10. -18. -25. -31. -38. -46. -54. -60. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.5 114.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.29 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.3% 27.2% 20.1% 17.6% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 9.7% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 28.0% 17.0% 13.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 16.6% 18.8% 12.1% 9.5% 7.4% 1.5% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##