* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/02/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 70 69 64 60 53 47 44 39 33 28 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 70 69 64 60 53 47 44 39 33 28 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 63 60 56 51 45 41 38 36 32 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 11 12 12 10 15 10 13 18 13 18 16 15 16 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 2 -3 4 0 -2 0 -2 -1 2 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 328 251 227 220 236 203 220 224 203 218 224 252 244 210 208 227 203 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.2 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 25.2 24.6 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.9 23.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 145 147 141 135 125 117 114 114 108 100 101 102 101 102 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 63 63 62 61 60 58 56 56 49 39 31 25 18 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 20 21 21 20 20 18 17 18 17 15 13 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 58 64 57 59 59 62 64 53 60 60 64 28 18 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 57 88 54 57 64 57 24 32 36 29 18 19 -9 -7 -12 -4 -26 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 1 0 13 3 6 2 0 1 2 0 2 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 644 691 751 836 901 1045 1169 1281 1390 1498 1619 1739 1868 1991 2058 1839 1600 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.4 115.4 116.6 117.7 120.0 121.9 123.8 125.5 127.1 128.6 130.1 131.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 8 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 4. -0. -7. -13. -16. -21. -27. -32. -35. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.0 113.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.64 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.58 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 42.8% 28.0% 21.2% 14.8% 22.2% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 15.3% 9.9% 7.2% 5.0% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 35.0% 20.0% 13.0% 9.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.8% 25.1% 14.9% 10.1% 7.0% 8.2% 2.9% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##