* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 72 68 64 55 50 44 41 36 29 24 20 17 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 72 68 64 55 50 44 41 36 29 24 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 62 62 60 56 50 46 43 41 38 33 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 9 12 6 13 12 10 15 12 11 13 18 17 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -1 -3 1 0 1 2 -3 -2 -3 2 5 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 317 324 248 235 232 210 209 223 203 205 220 254 262 241 217 223 227 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.2 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.5 25.5 24.5 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 147 145 147 137 130 125 117 117 117 107 100 100 102 104 105 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 65 64 65 64 63 60 60 55 54 46 41 33 27 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 21 21 20 20 18 17 16 16 13 11 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 56 55 57 61 61 57 62 55 57 56 47 35 21 13 0 200 MB DIV 26 56 76 44 48 53 47 37 0 11 -1 2 -23 -30 -29 -11 0 700-850 TADV 5 -3 0 2 2 3 9 5 5 1 1 0 4 4 5 6 7 LAND (KM) 617 647 694 762 840 977 1118 1231 1343 1444 1558 1666 1789 1900 2010 2006 1756 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.4 114.4 115.5 116.6 118.8 120.9 122.8 124.5 126.0 127.5 129.0 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 10 8 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 13. 9. 0. -5. -11. -14. -19. -26. -31. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.64 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 50.7% 32.0% 20.8% 14.5% 24.5% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 14.8% 7.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 22.0% 13.2% 8.0% 5.4% 8.5% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 45.0% 28.0% 18.0% 12.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.5% 33.5% 20.6% 13.0% 8.7% 14.2% 7.7% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##