* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 68 69 70 66 63 54 50 47 42 38 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 68 69 70 66 63 54 50 47 42 38 34 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 62 62 61 59 55 49 46 43 41 37 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 3 6 10 9 9 10 13 8 8 16 13 14 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 -2 1 2 -1 3 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 309 319 339 292 244 249 234 198 202 210 234 235 240 231 202 212 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.9 25.8 24.8 24.3 24.7 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 148 147 142 138 131 125 119 121 120 110 105 110 105 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 65 64 66 64 62 62 59 54 46 38 31 24 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 20 22 21 20 18 17 17 14 13 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 52 55 54 67 58 57 67 68 55 62 75 56 30 22 4 200 MB DIV 38 38 42 59 58 71 72 49 40 41 24 0 -11 -23 -26 -17 -10 700-850 TADV 4 1 -2 0 4 0 6 1 6 3 0 0 4 3 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 642 651 680 740 812 964 1105 1212 1306 1396 1459 1548 1646 1795 1991 2103 1851 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.7 115.8 118.0 120.1 121.7 123.5 124.9 125.9 127.2 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 10 10 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 4. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 11. 8. -1. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 111.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.66 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 46.6% 31.4% 21.4% 14.8% 25.0% 17.4% 10.2% Logistic: 3.6% 12.3% 6.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 19.7% 12.6% 8.2% 5.2% 8.6% 5.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 12.0% 34.0% 21.0% 13.0% 9.0% 18.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.0% 26.8% 16.8% 10.6% 7.1% 13.3% 5.9% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##