* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 08/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 65 68 70 70 66 61 55 54 52 45 42 38 35 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 65 68 70 70 66 61 55 54 52 45 42 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 59 61 63 64 62 59 55 52 50 47 41 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 7 2 8 8 7 8 13 10 5 7 18 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 2 0 -2 -1 0 3 4 2 7 SHEAR DIR 308 302 354 357 338 235 228 223 202 204 225 221 220 233 242 230 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.9 25.8 24.9 24.2 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 151 147 148 139 136 130 126 120 121 120 111 104 108 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 68 67 64 65 67 66 66 65 61 55 44 41 31 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 22 21 19 19 19 15 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 50 56 55 56 69 65 53 73 55 64 68 48 36 21 21 200 MB DIV 45 42 30 48 37 46 94 38 36 43 40 13 11 -30 -20 -28 -5 700-850 TADV 0 5 2 -3 0 2 0 4 2 3 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 618 630 644 689 747 893 1046 1152 1243 1307 1396 1467 1548 1653 1798 1987 2113 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.7 113.8 114.8 116.9 119.2 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.8 126.0 127.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 18 13 10 12 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 16. 11. 5. 4. 2. -5. -8. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.2 110.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 32.0% 19.8% 16.8% 13.5% 25.3% 18.9% 11.5% Logistic: 2.9% 12.3% 5.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 14.9% 8.5% 6.5% 4.7% 8.7% 6.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 10.0% 35.0% 20.0% 12.0% 8.0% 30.0% 12.0% 1.0% SDCON: 7.7% 24.9% 14.2% 9.2% 6.3% 19.3% 9.1% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##