* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032024 07/31/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 53 60 68 80 86 84 86 78 73 67 62 60 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 40 47 53 60 68 80 86 84 86 78 73 67 62 60 60 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 70 78 82 84 80 72 66 61 58 57 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 6 4 4 3 5 5 10 5 6 6 7 8 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 1 -2 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 6 17 354 321 313 1 256 279 164 121 147 89 157 199 205 223 208 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 158 154 155 154 152 146 137 132 126 123 120 123 120 116 114 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 69 68 65 65 68 65 70 75 76 72 67 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 21 23 23 28 27 27 25 23 23 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 47 64 60 57 52 63 73 82 78 68 79 71 77 87 95 93 69 200 MB DIV 43 41 65 60 38 18 74 84 48 27 6 23 22 33 2 -18 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 -3 4 1 4 1 1 -1 1 -1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 480 526 589 658 671 720 851 1009 1099 1153 1197 1239 1327 1466 1641 1827 2029 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.8 109.8 110.8 111.7 113.8 115.9 118.0 119.7 120.9 121.8 122.8 124.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 7 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 18 18 22 17 15 13 6 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 22. 20. 19. 16. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 9. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 28. 40. 46. 44. 46. 38. 33. 27. 22. 20. 20. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 07/31/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 50.0% 33.5% 20.9% 14.7% 29.7% 41.9% 37.9% Logistic: 15.8% 48.7% 25.0% 16.3% 4.9% 9.0% 2.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 19.1% 7.4% 2.9% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 39.3% 22.0% 13.3% 6.7% 13.6% 15.0% 13.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 35.0% 20.0% 12.0% 4.0% 27.0% 21.0% 6.0% SDCON: 9.8% 37.1% 21.0% 12.6% 5.3% 20.3% 18.0% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 07/31/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##