* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032024 07/31/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 53 62 69 73 72 70 66 63 58 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 53 62 69 73 72 70 66 63 58 56 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 51 55 56 55 54 52 49 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 9 8 7 3 4 5 5 7 8 7 10 6 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 3 -1 0 -2 -1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 356 4 10 5 359 348 317 246 222 199 157 131 157 234 247 226 231 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 158 157 154 153 150 144 136 131 121 115 111 108 101 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 75 74 71 69 69 71 71 73 75 73 68 68 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 13 13 14 17 19 22 23 23 23 21 20 19 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 34 41 58 55 54 54 61 70 61 69 57 61 69 74 69 41 -8 200 MB DIV 80 54 48 67 55 27 53 53 40 86 26 46 15 1 0 0 -15 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 2 0 3 3 0 2 9 11 15 15 LAND (KM) 517 531 568 632 704 715 777 881 957 1010 1044 1067 1067 1106 1198 1262 1333 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 28 18 18 23 16 16 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 20. 21. 19. 16. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 23. 32. 39. 43. 42. 40. 36. 33. 28. 26. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 106.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 THREE 07/31/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.5% 15.9% 13.1% 0.0% 21.6% 20.4% 28.8% Logistic: 0.9% 7.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 10.2% 6.2% 4.7% 0.1% 7.6% 7.2% 10.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% SDCON: 2.2% 10.1% 5.1% 3.3% .5% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 THREE 07/31/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##