* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP012024 07/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 38 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 38 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 39 38 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 10 12 9 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 138 117 126 122 98 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.1 26.6 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 137 129 123 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 64 58 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 31 29 27 26 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -28 -29 0 18 17 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 8 6 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 303 361 428 495 610 726 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.5 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.4 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.9 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 8 5 2 0 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.6 106.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012024 ALETTA 07/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 12.3% 9.9% 7.5% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 7.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 1.4% 2.9% 0% .3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012024 ALETTA 07/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##