* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012024 07/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 33 30 26 22 19 17 16 15 15 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 33 30 26 22 19 17 16 15 15 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 31 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 9 9 13 7 8 12 11 11 9 12 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 -1 -4 4 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 91 105 92 94 111 85 114 117 131 140 153 157 143 151 164 173 212 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.1 24.1 23.4 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.1 25.0 24.6 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 141 134 103 95 92 98 104 107 112 114 113 110 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 70 67 65 65 57 58 50 52 45 46 41 39 35 33 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 17 26 34 32 30 30 4 5 -11 -1 -12 10 8 10 3 -2 200 MB DIV -18 -29 -32 -15 -2 16 -13 -36 -17 -7 -19 -35 -14 -20 -19 -13 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 2 9 3 4 -4 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 7 10 LAND (KM) 275 237 253 302 353 437 414 433 493 594 718 854 994 1159 1355 1580 1854 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.2 19.8 19.2 18.7 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.1 106.8 107.6 108.4 110.1 111.6 112.8 113.8 114.7 115.7 117.1 118.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 105.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012024 ONE 07/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.0% 10.0% 7.7% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 10.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.8% 5.0% 3.3% 0.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 4.4% 2.5% 1.6% .1% 2.5% 0% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012024 ONE 07/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##