* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 29 26 27 23 21 15 21 22 26 31 38 45 47 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -1 -2 4 7 12 20 18 22 21 21 12 10 10 3 SHEAR DIR 285 280 275 268 258 259 254 258 226 227 217 213 204 206 196 191 190 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.6 22.8 21.5 21.0 20.2 20.0 19.4 18.9 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 131 126 117 107 103 101 97 89 75 70 63 61 61 60 61 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 72 71 70 69 63 59 54 50 45 39 35 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 3 2 -7 -25 -44 -40 -35 -18 -42 -45 200 MB DIV 58 70 92 108 129 62 80 35 7 -7 3 0 24 4 10 6 4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 0 5 -3 0 0 -1 0 1 6 10 14 8 0 -10 LAND (KM) 1545 1564 1600 1621 1626 1620 1619 1627 1579 1507 1431 1383 1272 1147 1018 876 717 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.3 19.4 20.6 22.2 23.6 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 123.0 123.9 124.6 125.7 126.5 127.1 127.5 127.6 127.8 128.0 128.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 6 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 3. -2. -7. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -23. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -27. -35. -41. -45. -51. -55. -61. -66. -71. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 121.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##