* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 50 51 48 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 50 51 48 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 44 41 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 6 10 18 27 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 7 11 16 12 6 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 273 202 191 206 219 215 235 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 153 148 147 150 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 75 75 74 71 68 61 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 21 27 20 17 10 9 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 80 49 70 86 34 -1 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 4 4 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1186 1240 1280 1327 1371 1335 1311 1314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.5 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.0 113.9 115.4 116.3 117.5 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 18 21 21 24 12 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 8. -2. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.3 110.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 25.2% 18.2% 14.6% 10.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.9% 80.3% 59.8% 50.2% 6.6% 14.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.1% 26.6% 10.8% 6.4% 0.7% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 22.2% 44.0% 29.6% 23.7% 5.8% 11.8% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##