* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 85 81 77 68 60 53 47 42 40 41 44 45 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 89 85 81 77 68 60 53 47 42 40 41 44 45 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 88 82 77 71 60 52 44 37 32 30 29 29 29 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 14 14 11 11 11 3 2 5 8 7 8 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 2 3 3 6 12 7 6 2 1 7 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 121 120 123 122 112 143 87 91 51 114 148 148 176 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.5 25.6 25.5 24.2 23.6 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 140 131 129 120 120 107 100 107 110 116 119 121 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 43 41 39 37 32 28 26 22 21 21 21 22 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 21 20 18 15 12 10 7 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 38 47 56 44 41 43 42 33 29 33 30 20 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 5 15 19 0 -39 -16 -43 -19 20 -12 -4 0 -13 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -2 0 1 7 1 8 4 11 2 2 3 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1225 1278 1338 1423 1499 1681 1891 2128 1950 1613 1299 988 683 409 168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.3 123.5 124.7 127.3 130.1 133.0 136.3 139.5 142.5 145.5 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -21. -19. -18. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -55. -54. -51. -50. -48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.8 120.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 816.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 -0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 12.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##