* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP072023 08/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 83 87 87 83 75 67 60 52 47 45 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 83 87 87 83 75 67 60 52 47 45 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 85 88 87 79 70 62 55 48 43 38 36 35 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 1 4 11 10 14 8 6 7 6 12 14 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 6 4 2 4 4 4 7 6 6 2 3 7 6 SHEAR DIR 10 33 4 183 156 168 135 136 119 110 84 98 91 145 158 186 212 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.7 24.3 23.5 24.0 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 154 150 136 130 122 122 107 99 104 111 114 115 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 56 53 50 43 36 33 29 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 19 18 17 15 14 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 14 18 20 30 31 44 37 38 41 39 33 43 41 35 27 200 MB DIV 34 29 29 33 27 -7 -25 -28 -38 -31 -33 -18 4 1 -16 -1 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 0 3 -1 1 5 7 1 8 2 11 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 1042 1071 1105 1155 1201 1283 1393 1528 1689 1905 2158 1963 1668 1354 1031 762 568 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.4 119.2 120.9 122.8 125.0 127.3 130.1 133.2 136.2 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 23 27 26 18 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 22. 22. 18. 10. 2. -5. -13. -18. -20. -21. -19. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 9.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 12.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.82 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.9% 56.9% 55.9% 54.6% 40.8% 29.3% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 25.7% 27.3% 32.2% 17.2% 5.5% 3.7% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 14.3% 17.7% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.3% 34.0% 30.8% 24.6% 15.6% 11.1% 5.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 50.0% 68.0% 61.0% 43.0% 25.0% 37.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072023 FERNANDA 08/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##