* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 104 103 99 94 81 69 58 50 42 38 33 33 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 104 104 103 99 94 81 69 58 50 42 38 33 33 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 103 99 94 89 79 69 59 52 45 41 37 32 28 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 1 2 9 9 11 13 16 17 19 14 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 4 1 -2 0 0 0 3 1 6 11 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 275 157 143 163 68 281 295 278 264 243 216 227 215 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.3 23.9 23.8 24.1 24.7 25.1 25.0 25.6 26.6 26.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 130 127 125 121 118 103 103 106 112 117 116 122 132 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 72 73 70 64 60 57 53 53 52 50 50 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 27 25 26 22 20 18 16 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 44 47 39 32 35 35 29 37 30 19 2 -3 -4 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 65 64 40 30 34 -22 -2 -12 4 -8 21 10 26 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -5 -6 2 0 4 7 -1 0 6 0 4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1674 1747 1831 1911 1983 2161 2242 1915 1527 1156 781 400 65 214 241 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 124.0 125.4 126.7 128.1 131.0 133.9 136.9 140.5 144.0 147.6 151.3 155.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 13 14 15 14 16 17 17 18 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -37. -40. -42. -43. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -19. -31. -42. -50. -57. -62. -67. -67. -67. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.4 122.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.7% 22.7% 17.2% 11.9% 4.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##