* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 52 61 69 74 77 76 74 67 63 61 59 58 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 52 61 69 74 77 76 74 67 63 61 59 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 50 55 58 60 59 56 52 49 46 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 11 11 9 8 11 3 7 7 7 8 7 14 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 3 4 -5 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 42 44 30 3 5 342 315 314 206 221 186 217 185 183 211 217 200 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.2 24.1 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 144 146 148 148 129 123 118 107 105 106 113 116 115 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 81 81 83 81 78 74 65 59 54 53 48 43 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 18 18 18 21 23 24 24 25 24 20 18 16 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 7 9 17 29 25 19 20 15 32 27 24 29 29 22 17 200 MB DIV 51 46 23 10 31 55 59 11 17 -1 -20 -24 -21 5 -10 6 21 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 1 -1 -3 -10 -2 -4 0 8 0 9 3 3 6 10 LAND (KM) 935 1019 1118 1228 1290 1416 1584 1754 1902 2098 2255 1920 1648 1287 865 491 184 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.3 112.7 114.2 115.6 118.3 121.2 124.2 127.1 130.4 133.8 136.9 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 14 14 18 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 27 16 10 10 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. 32. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 26. 34. 39. 42. 41. 39. 32. 28. 26. 24. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.3% 14.1% 11.2% 7.2% 15.8% 14.3% 8.8% Logistic: 5.6% 36.4% 11.5% 6.8% 2.4% 13.5% 13.9% 20.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 16.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 6.9% 3.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.5% 23.4% 9.2% 6.2% 3.4% 12.1% 10.5% 9.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 33.0% 15.0% 6.0% 3.0% 13.0% 17.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##