* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 83 78 72 59 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 83 78 72 59 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 82 77 71 59 48 39 32 27 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 16 19 19 15 18 16 16 13 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 -2 -3 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 97 110 116 114 129 118 97 103 90 114 116 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.4 24.1 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.2 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 132 128 125 115 101 98 98 100 101 99 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 69 69 71 71 68 63 58 53 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 24 23 22 20 18 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 64 60 80 100 110 109 90 98 100 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 14 42 22 25 35 42 43 17 -13 -16 -18 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 2 4 6 11 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 720 707 703 708 716 752 808 866 921 962 999 1067 1161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.2 112.9 113.4 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.0 118.0 118.6 119.0 119.8 121.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 6 4 4 4 2 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -37. -41. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -21. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -7. -13. -26. -40. -53. -64. -74. -80. -83. -86. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.6 111.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.09 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 13.9% 12.3% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##