* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 10/13/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 37 39 37 36 35 36 36 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 37 39 37 36 35 36 36 36 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 24 22 21 21 20 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 16 16 14 17 21 25 24 21 24 23 22 31 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 4 2 3 1 0 0 -1 -8 -6 -7 -10 -8 -12 SHEAR DIR 71 71 70 76 78 85 105 125 137 157 157 156 151 143 150 151 156 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 161 160 156 150 149 149 147 149 150 148 147 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 6 8 6 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 59 61 59 58 55 53 52 53 49 50 46 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 60 52 52 40 10 -5 -10 15 31 38 40 45 42 37 36 34 200 MB DIV 22 29 9 7 28 11 16 -11 -14 4 41 36 40 3 6 -4 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 31 33 75 132 193 285 362 400 479 571 648 714 788 830 859 873 863 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.3 98.8 99.4 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.3 105.8 107.5 108.9 109.9 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 24 24 22 17 13 13 11 10 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 12. 11. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 97.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 10/13/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 10/13/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##