* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 10/12/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 32 35 36 35 34 34 36 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 32 35 36 35 34 34 36 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 15 17 21 24 25 22 19 22 22 30 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 3 -1 0 -3 -3 -6 -5 -11 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 76 75 74 73 75 85 89 114 131 143 143 140 140 135 140 142 141 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 160 157 151 149 148 147 147 147 148 147 147 146 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 9 7 8 6 7 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 63 62 63 64 64 60 60 61 60 59 59 58 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 52 49 50 36 -1 -8 5 21 39 40 29 37 30 19 13 200 MB DIV 43 25 30 13 15 45 36 14 -9 -5 38 54 60 43 30 53 46 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 46 31 53 110 167 265 357 418 469 552 635 695 739 773 768 766 787 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.9 98.3 98.9 99.5 100.8 102.2 103.5 104.7 106.1 107.3 108.2 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 23 22 18 14 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 97.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 10/12/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.3% 4.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 10/12/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##