* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 10/12/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 44 47 49 52 53 54 54 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 35 40 44 47 49 52 53 54 46 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 30 32 34 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 21 23 20 16 19 15 14 16 14 21 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 1 2 3 2 4 -2 1 -2 -6 -2 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 75 75 73 73 59 73 76 91 89 88 91 109 139 167 202 222 SST (C) 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 154 161 162 164 163 161 157 155 153 154 156 158 159 162 149 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 7 8 6 8 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 73 73 71 72 75 75 73 72 67 64 57 52 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 49 44 50 48 45 27 17 20 38 48 67 66 47 63 36 200 MB DIV 67 79 86 60 29 30 43 59 101 71 96 49 34 34 27 -8 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 124 122 110 106 124 194 268 324 369 370 356 297 231 128 -29 -162 -230 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.9 97.4 97.8 98.2 99.2 100.2 101.0 101.8 102.5 103.1 103.8 104.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 6 7 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 16 24 26 25 22 19 17 16 16 18 22 30 23 21 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 42. 45. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 96.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 10/12/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.6% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 10/12/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##