* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 08/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 43 49 56 58 59 62 61 61 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 43 49 56 58 59 62 61 61 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 36 37 38 39 38 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 5 6 5 4 11 6 1 5 4 6 3 4 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 0 1 3 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 303 254 254 272 268 178 169 133 184 111 213 225 233 283 273 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.7 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.7 23.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 152 152 155 146 137 129 124 119 112 108 103 107 102 93 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 69 68 68 67 64 56 53 49 47 45 47 47 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 20 18 18 19 18 18 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -16 -13 -10 -8 0 38 51 50 44 39 46 45 37 30 58 200 MB DIV 58 55 63 52 47 28 -10 33 4 -18 -20 -8 -14 5 21 -10 -25 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -6 -8 -7 -7 3 -2 0 -1 1 0 6 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 605 599 617 623 623 683 684 653 724 767 831 935 1056 1130 1168 1286 1516 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 10 11 12 11 9 9 7 7 9 8 3 5 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 15 15 15 14 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 8. 7. 9. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 19. 26. 28. 29. 32. 31. 31. 31. 30. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 104.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 08/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.9% 18.0% 17.0% 0.0% 17.1% 15.0% 12.8% Logistic: 4.6% 20.0% 14.0% 8.1% 1.5% 7.7% 3.8% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 14.6% 11.0% 8.4% 0.5% 8.4% 6.3% 7.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 08/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##