* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 08/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 48 56 64 74 78 77 82 79 78 76 73 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 48 56 64 74 78 77 82 79 78 76 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 60 69 75 74 67 58 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 1 3 2 6 5 11 6 9 4 5 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 1 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 296 288 284 262 265 234 108 62 5 3 348 11 325 352 258 263 233 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.3 26.8 25.5 24.4 22.6 22.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 151 150 151 155 157 156 147 132 119 108 89 82 74 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 67 68 69 70 72 73 71 71 65 66 63 65 60 56 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 15 16 18 21 22 20 23 20 20 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -29 -24 -25 -26 -13 -11 8 26 34 37 35 33 19 9 6 200 MB DIV 37 40 41 54 55 44 19 -11 26 8 34 -7 24 -19 -12 -25 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -3 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 -2 1 1 3 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 598 627 636 665 676 661 607 551 497 378 227 200 223 318 485 714 942 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.5 18.0 19.5 21.0 22.6 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.5 105.5 106.4 107.1 108.1 108.8 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.8 112.2 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 13 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 16 14 14 16 17 16 17 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 13. 10. 13. 8. 8. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 44. 48. 47. 52. 49. 48. 46. 43. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 103.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 08/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.8% 20.0% 18.6% 0.0% 19.0% 17.0% 24.7% Logistic: 13.5% 44.6% 37.1% 27.4% 7.7% 26.9% 11.2% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 26.1% 19.7% 15.5% 2.6% 16.5% 9.7% 15.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 14.0% 32.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 08/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##