* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 08/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 52 60 68 74 75 80 81 81 80 78 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 52 60 68 74 75 80 81 81 80 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 39 44 52 59 67 73 76 69 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 5 5 1 7 8 7 13 16 15 7 7 2 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 1 4 2 1 2 5 0 -1 0 1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 310 311 284 260 231 233 95 99 69 31 3 10 327 354 134 101 150 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.6 29.9 29.5 29.3 26.3 23.7 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 150 149 150 153 160 163 159 158 127 100 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 68 69 69 69 71 72 69 69 67 65 63 62 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 16 17 18 19 21 21 24 22 21 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 -25 -18 -15 -18 -23 -24 1 9 22 35 38 51 27 21 1 200 MB DIV 10 18 33 46 65 48 46 33 18 2 -7 5 -17 -3 9 14 5 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -7 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 0 0 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 577 629 657 697 747 799 766 672 568 455 355 307 122 102 112 184 237 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.7 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.3 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 104.2 105.3 106.3 107.2 108.5 109.1 109.0 108.9 108.7 108.7 109.0 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 10 9 8 6 5 6 6 8 8 8 9 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 17 14 14 16 17 18 17 22 28 13 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 14. 11. 9. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 22. 30. 38. 44. 45. 50. 51. 51. 50. 48. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 102.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 08/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.5% 19.1% 17.6% 0.0% 18.4% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 37.6% 30.9% 19.1% 6.0% 17.9% 7.5% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 2.7% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 6.8% 23.3% 17.1% 12.3% 2.0% 13.0% 8.5% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 9.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 08/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##