* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 08/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 41 44 48 52 55 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 41 44 48 52 55 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 28 29 30 32 34 36 37 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 20 16 15 15 10 9 9 10 5 7 11 8 10 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 286 285 284 272 264 286 266 276 266 267 285 262 298 287 284 252 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.4 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.6 25.6 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 155 154 155 159 166 165 163 157 148 141 133 128 118 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 6 8 6 8 6 7 5 6 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 64 68 70 71 74 72 69 65 64 62 64 60 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 4 3 8 -18 -9 -16 5 1 24 23 27 28 25 33 35 200 MB DIV 18 29 36 54 58 34 1 20 18 8 42 3 31 -10 30 -14 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -2 -6 -5 -7 -3 -5 8 1 2 -3 2 0 4 -1 LAND (KM) 545 508 484 449 436 409 353 322 304 366 270 219 259 270 369 504 611 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.9 19.3 20.5 21.6 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.0 98.1 99.1 100.1 102.0 103.9 105.7 107.4 109.0 110.4 111.6 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 19 23 23 20 28 25 36 16 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 96.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 08/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 13.0% 11.4% 0.0% 13.2% 12.7% 13.2% Logistic: 0.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 6.4% 31.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 4.6% 3.9% 0.1% 4.7% 6.4% 15.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 08/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##