* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 08/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 30 33 37 43 49 59 63 68 73 77 81 85 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 30 33 37 43 49 59 63 68 73 77 81 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 27 26 28 30 35 42 47 52 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 12 7 7 7 8 7 3 2 12 11 8 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -1 0 1 4 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 287 271 270 270 250 231 224 242 193 139 78 14 321 337 259 235 213 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 30.0 29.6 29.7 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.7 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 154 155 154 156 158 166 161 162 155 149 141 135 130 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 64 66 69 72 71 71 67 65 62 61 60 61 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 16 16 17 17 17 18 20 20 22 23 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 24 5 0 5 7 -3 -16 -15 -10 8 7 24 22 43 29 23 21 200 MB DIV 5 16 22 38 49 11 19 -20 22 21 24 7 14 14 7 -9 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -5 1 -1 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 533 545 518 493 455 447 410 370 339 324 362 256 219 282 330 431 536 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 19.4 20.6 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.9 97.0 98.0 98.9 100.8 102.5 104.3 106.2 107.7 109.0 110.2 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 14 18 22 22 20 27 24 36 15 8 4 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 3. 7. 13. 20. 29. 33. 38. 43. 47. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 95.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 08/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.2% 12.6% 11.3% 0.0% 13.4% 13.1% 13.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% 6.1% 38.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 1.3% 6.9% 4.8% 4.0% 0.1% 5.0% 6.5% 17.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 08/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##