* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 10/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 37 39 38 38 36 35 34 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 37 39 38 38 36 35 34 31 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 7 7 2 8 12 14 21 22 25 29 29 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 1 2 3 1 2 8 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 93 70 76 106 246 260 246 264 297 293 292 281 275 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.8 28.1 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 143 143 145 144 143 139 136 140 140 143 138 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 51 52 49 46 44 40 38 38 35 29 30 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 7 4 -5 -2 5 15 22 13 32 31 35 19 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 32 26 20 21 4 9 17 -3 -11 -51 -20 -47 0 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 1 4 5 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 890 879 865 852 840 772 718 691 691 716 771 824 891 934 978 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 2 3 5 3 3 3 2 3 5 5 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 6 6 7 8 17 11 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 111.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 10/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 8.8% 6.7% 0.7% 0.1% 5.4% 4.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 10/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##