* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 10/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 32 35 39 41 43 42 42 43 42 40 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 32 35 39 41 43 42 42 43 42 40 36 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 27 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 10 10 5 3 8 16 19 24 26 35 41 46 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 6 5 1 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 94 97 84 64 63 64 349 253 248 248 253 243 241 226 225 226 224 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.5 29.7 30.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 145 144 144 144 143 139 135 136 139 143 148 161 168 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 60 61 59 55 55 53 51 50 50 48 49 48 50 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 10 -14 -27 -5 -8 6 20 24 21 18 2 -3 -7 11 9 200 MB DIV 46 32 27 6 11 23 7 23 33 48 15 38 24 24 17 34 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 0 1 2 6 6 6 5 5 LAND (KM) 890 865 865 866 876 887 854 752 650 568 486 407 336 282 212 60 -149 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.3 111.3 111.4 111.6 111.9 112.2 112.0 111.4 110.4 109.7 109.2 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 5 4 6 10 13 14 19 26 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 17. 18. 17. 15. 11. 7. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 111.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 10/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 7.8% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 4.7% 4.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 10/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##