* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 10/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 32 39 44 47 47 47 47 50 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 32 39 44 47 47 47 47 50 50 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 23 22 21 20 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 9 7 6 9 4 4 6 9 16 20 15 21 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 0 0 3 4 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 118 126 116 100 93 65 65 58 353 281 270 267 274 241 224 226 235 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 144 146 146 147 145 143 141 142 143 143 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 56 57 55 56 53 52 52 50 50 50 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 34 28 27 4 -23 -17 -21 -6 9 17 18 23 0 -4 -15 200 MB DIV -2 1 28 31 36 7 8 19 -6 14 41 23 0 -1 -2 19 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 982 958 950 940 914 911 912 916 913 849 772 686 615 550 492 441 383 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.4 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 112.8 112.4 112.1 111.8 111.6 111.7 111.9 112.2 112.0 111.5 110.7 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 8 9 10 9 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 19. 24. 27. 27. 27. 27. 30. 30. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 113.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 10/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 18.1% 9.1% 5.6% 2.8% 3.0% 1.0% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 6.2% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 10/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##