* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 07/27/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 46 50 51 50 49 46 41 34 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 46 50 51 50 49 46 41 34 24 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 36 36 36 35 34 31 27 23 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 14 15 12 14 20 33 36 25 17 12 12 20 29 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 4 2 0 0 8 -1 2 1 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 109 107 99 94 105 133 114 96 62 54 29 338 326 268 261 232 224 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 26.9 25.6 22.5 20.1 19.6 19.4 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 149 150 146 151 158 159 162 137 122 90 65 62 61 60 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 58 60 62 62 67 76 83 78 71 65 64 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 70 73 85 87 119 119 123 92 53 34 37 48 43 43 31 39 200 MB DIV 17 32 24 39 67 56 93 103 144 129 76 80 17 6 17 3 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 4 0 2 3 11 -7 -14 1 -10 -15 2 8 6 LAND (KM) 865 901 961 1032 1122 1312 1498 1648 1594 1297 882 580 516 642 762 745 676 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.0 13.9 12.6 12.1 13.8 17.6 21.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.5 119.3 120.7 121.2 119.9 117.7 116.3 116.6 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 10 17 21 17 17 18 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 13 15 15 17 23 20 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 29. 27. 23. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 21. 20. 19. 16. 11. 4. -6. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 114.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.8% 12.4% 11.3% 0.0% 12.7% 12.7% 12.5% Logistic: 1.2% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 1.9% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.5% 4.7% 4.0% 0.2% 4.5% 4.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##