* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 07/27/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 31 35 38 43 44 44 42 41 38 34 29 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 31 35 38 43 44 44 42 41 38 34 29 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 13 16 13 9 16 17 31 37 23 13 8 8 11 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 0 1 -3 3 4 0 1 -3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 106 104 107 103 98 115 117 106 78 65 60 37 352 328 278 238 222 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 26.4 25.2 22.2 20.2 19.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 143 147 150 148 148 152 152 154 154 130 117 85 65 62 61 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 60 59 59 60 60 61 67 76 82 80 75 71 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 42 59 76 84 98 117 117 111 77 48 26 30 45 45 38 34 200 MB DIV 45 24 28 43 52 53 50 84 120 110 105 68 65 21 -1 5 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 4 7 -18 -12 0 -7 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 835 845 889 939 1017 1206 1397 1574 1671 1544 1209 838 596 566 603 718 673 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.1 15.4 14.6 13.4 12.4 12.6 14.9 18.4 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.0 114.8 115.6 116.5 118.3 120.1 121.2 121.3 119.8 117.8 116.6 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 6 5 11 18 18 14 14 14 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 11 13 14 16 16 19 18 17 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. 30. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 113.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.8% 3.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##