* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 07/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 39 42 44 45 44 44 44 41 36 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 39 42 44 45 44 44 44 41 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 25 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 12 13 14 10 12 16 24 35 37 19 11 20 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 4 3 -4 5 4 2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 126 94 101 109 110 103 144 129 114 76 65 57 40 302 294 325 312 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.6 26.5 25.5 23.4 21.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 140 143 146 142 145 147 149 156 154 131 119 97 76 61 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 60 59 57 57 56 54 59 65 71 77 75 72 72 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 37 54 65 76 113 119 124 114 77 42 24 26 21 30 24 200 MB DIV 36 38 20 25 41 44 57 63 87 78 88 66 71 54 44 -3 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 4 8 -13 0 -3 -7 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 811 790 806 843 902 1074 1241 1439 1642 1729 1609 1254 854 617 579 512 506 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.4 15.9 15.0 13.6 12.6 12.7 14.8 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.3 114.0 114.8 115.7 117.6 119.5 121.3 122.5 122.5 120.8 118.3 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 7 5 12 19 16 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 8 9 11 13 12 14 15 19 16 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -7. -10. -11. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 19. 19. 19. 16. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 112.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.3% 3.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 7.6% 5.6% 0.5% 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 07/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##