* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 07/26/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 50 52 54 53 47 40 33 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 50 52 54 53 47 40 33 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 30 32 32 32 33 33 33 32 30 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 13 14 15 19 16 22 26 21 11 22 20 21 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 0 3 4 4 5 10 0 -1 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 118 128 117 116 112 111 112 94 64 42 29 7 302 296 278 252 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.9 27.1 23.6 21.0 20.2 20.2 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 145 149 156 152 152 149 155 156 138 101 74 65 64 68 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 66 64 64 67 68 65 66 76 82 78 73 66 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 41 50 52 69 86 96 110 93 69 41 26 26 36 34 55 59 200 MB DIV 30 42 58 48 37 69 40 59 93 134 130 77 36 -3 -7 15 13 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 7 8 -10 -11 11 2 -1 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 868 845 857 899 955 1128 1320 1506 1584 1476 1207 918 759 737 939 1116 1282 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.6 14.9 14.0 12.8 11.9 12.3 14.6 18.1 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.6 113.2 113.9 114.8 116.6 118.3 119.5 119.5 118.4 117.4 117.5 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 9 10 9 6 3 9 16 18 18 17 15 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 11 15 19 17 17 16 17 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 33. 31. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 28. 22. 15. 8. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 112.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 07/26/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.32 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 3.2% 8.3% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.7% 8.0% 5.7% 0.5% 0.2% 5.7% 7.1% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 07/26/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##