* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 09/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 42 48 53 56 57 53 49 46 42 39 34 25 19 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 42 48 53 56 57 53 44 39 39 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 44 46 46 44 41 37 31 32 30 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 4 9 18 19 26 33 36 37 37 37 43 47 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 0 -1 -5 0 5 0 6 4 6 0 3 7 6 2 SHEAR DIR 73 79 63 17 272 250 254 233 224 227 232 220 218 233 236 229 236 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.9 29.7 30.7 31.5 29.3 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 153 151 147 143 145 145 143 152 159 169 170 156 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 80 76 72 66 62 59 55 54 49 49 51 52 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -14 -12 13 31 43 56 57 61 48 57 56 57 31 2 -16 200 MB DIV 50 73 83 97 91 94 87 105 75 51 32 56 51 20 13 11 14 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -12 -7 -4 -9 -3 -2 4 4 3 3 4 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 409 409 399 395 403 402 390 350 204 102 -3 -22 50 35 -44 -132 -250 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 17.2 18.6 19.8 21.1 22.0 23.1 24.0 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.5 105.5 106.5 108.0 108.9 109.4 109.6 109.8 110.1 110.3 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 6 6 5 6 3 4 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 16 15 13 10 14 9 6 11 17 26 37 18 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -28. -36. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 23. 19. 16. 12. 9. 4. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 102.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 09/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 23.3% 20.8% 20.1% 0.0% 19.7% 16.8% 18.3% Logistic: 6.9% 36.0% 23.6% 13.9% 4.1% 23.7% 17.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 10.7% 4.8% 1.4% 0.1% 2.8% 1.8% 1.1% Consensus: 5.9% 23.3% 16.4% 11.8% 1.4% 15.4% 12.0% 7.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 09/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##