* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 09/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 44 50 55 57 57 56 55 52 52 52 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 44 50 55 57 57 56 55 52 52 52 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 2 5 8 12 12 17 18 15 21 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 4 0 -7 -1 2 0 0 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 50 79 9 307 236 239 243 225 226 244 213 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.5 29.8 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 154 151 148 142 138 140 145 148 163 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 80 79 73 71 66 63 59 58 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -7 0 4 13 27 38 41 47 56 37 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 62 61 82 91 105 114 96 86 89 45 76 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -11 -16 -11 0 -4 -1 1 4 9 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 456 439 433 439 468 503 475 367 274 226 116 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 6 5 6 5 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 15 13 12 8 6 10 14 12 19 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 19. 25. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. 27. 27. 27. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 102.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 09/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.4% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 51.0% 32.0% 23.4% 5.8% 40.7% 31.6% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% Consensus: 3.0% 26.1% 17.7% 7.9% 2.0% 20.3% 17.1% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 09/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##