* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 07/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 51 59 66 76 82 90 91 86 81 76 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 51 59 66 76 82 90 91 86 81 76 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 36 38 42 49 56 63 72 76 72 62 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 14 17 19 16 9 10 9 8 8 10 9 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 2 2 0 0 0 3 4 2 3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 53 53 50 48 36 49 33 24 349 340 43 73 74 59 77 353 2 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.2 25.9 24.9 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 151 151 151 151 154 157 155 150 147 136 121 111 102 98 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 71 71 71 69 72 72 73 71 74 73 75 73 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 17 22 24 27 28 27 25 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 16 20 23 26 24 30 33 35 37 37 29 21 8 -4 7 200 MB DIV 66 15 28 59 104 96 79 67 79 108 119 109 72 28 58 8 -6 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -7 -7 -4 -4 0 2 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 615 646 678 717 743 803 855 915 994 1038 1015 1021 1032 1029 1048 1135 1293 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 34 28 22 17 18 21 19 18 18 12 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 18. 18. 14. 12. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 29. 36. 46. 52. 60. 61. 56. 51. 46. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 101.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.3% 12.6% 11.4% 0.0% 12.6% 12.9% 15.2% Logistic: 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 8.8% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 1.6% 7.8% 4.9% 4.0% 0.1% 4.6% 7.3% 11.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##