* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 07/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 45 52 58 63 68 74 80 82 80 78 74 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 45 52 58 63 68 74 80 82 80 78 74 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 45 48 52 58 65 67 64 56 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 14 18 20 18 19 17 13 8 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 75 67 54 54 58 47 54 31 26 344 343 111 103 98 303 238 282 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 28.3 27.0 26.2 25.0 23.6 23.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 155 154 152 150 151 152 153 157 148 135 127 114 99 94 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 72 69 69 71 69 69 70 69 68 65 62 60 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 14 16 19 22 24 24 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 11 11 15 19 25 19 29 31 28 37 46 43 48 54 65 200 MB DIV 81 63 28 0 6 75 85 55 63 53 41 42 35 36 1 -22 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 2 3 1 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 1 -1 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 571 609 656 696 730 771 791 820 801 826 796 734 756 845 1017 1175 1384 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.6 14.7 16.2 17.9 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.3 101.4 102.3 103.3 105.0 106.6 108.1 109.5 111.0 112.7 114.6 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 27 30 23 18 17 21 17 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 13. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 15. 22. 28. 33. 38. 44. 50. 52. 50. 48. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 99.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.9% 11.8% 10.5% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 11.9% Logistic: 1.3% 7.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1.2% 3.3% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 2.5% 8.6% 4.7% 3.8% 0.2% 4.6% 1.2% 9.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##