* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 07/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 38 43 50 58 64 71 70 73 76 80 81 79 77 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 38 43 50 58 64 71 70 73 76 80 81 79 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 47 50 52 56 62 68 70 67 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 15 11 11 14 20 12 13 9 7 5 7 5 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 1 5 3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 78 65 69 64 57 48 41 51 26 9 358 348 51 3 332 352 68 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.1 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 153 151 153 153 154 152 152 152 137 133 128 114 108 107 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 77 72 71 73 72 73 71 68 65 62 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 13 14 16 15 17 16 18 20 23 26 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 33 43 42 24 28 28 23 22 28 41 53 56 72 59 59 200 MB DIV 81 109 110 103 74 37 92 86 60 12 43 62 79 58 30 10 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -2 3 -1 4 LAND (KM) 518 512 527 535 557 598 617 608 630 676 761 751 845 923 1031 1173 1237 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.5 97.5 98.5 99.5 101.7 103.7 105.7 107.5 109.5 111.5 113.7 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 13 12 11 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 29 26 24 24 33 21 15 17 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 13. 18. 25. 33. 39. 46. 45. 48. 51. 55. 56. 54. 52. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 95.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/25/22 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING