* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 09/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 44 47 45 44 45 44 44 45 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 44 47 45 44 45 44 44 45 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 26 24 23 22 20 19 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 3 6 5 5 3 6 6 11 13 17 11 5 1 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -2 -3 -1 1 -3 0 -2 1 0 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 125 140 147 150 113 100 95 153 198 189 189 200 217 246 234 241 126 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.5 26.5 27.0 25.9 25.3 25.5 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 146 137 127 133 122 115 117 125 129 130 131 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 7 5 7 5 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 76 73 72 69 66 65 60 59 51 48 41 37 33 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 19 14 15 14 37 39 24 3 -15 -18 -16 -13 0 -3 4 200 MB DIV 70 67 48 36 40 12 5 -2 24 -7 -19 -15 -41 -39 -52 -30 -35 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 1 3 2 6 2 2 3 9 8 13 14 12 15 LAND (KM) 123 122 109 118 152 185 292 396 403 349 385 449 536 679 847 1065 1294 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.3 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.7 103.4 104.1 104.8 106.0 107.4 108.9 110.5 111.9 113.2 114.5 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 16 14 15 12 2 7 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 20. 19. 20. 19. 19. 20. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.7 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 09/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 29.2% 17.0% 10.5% 3.2% 28.1% 22.1% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 17.5% 11.8% 3.5% 1.1% 15.0% 12.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 09/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##