* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 58 73 78 79 75 72 67 61 56 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 58 73 78 79 75 72 67 61 56 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 46 52 54 52 49 46 42 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 14 13 13 11 12 15 24 23 20 15 8 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 52 52 60 62 54 74 91 58 42 47 43 47 51 15 55 107 135 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 23.4 23.4 22.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 161 157 152 149 144 140 134 125 113 97 97 82 86 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 75 76 77 79 79 78 76 72 72 69 65 60 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 15 17 22 22 25 24 25 25 24 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -1 8 9 9 23 39 35 43 50 63 64 70 71 66 67 200 MB DIV 61 57 71 82 119 118 154 158 116 91 68 38 15 0 -19 -8 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 -8 -8 -3 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 557 552 550 532 515 452 413 446 532 636 722 850 937 1077 1200 1341 1496 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 11 11 12 13 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 31 29 30 24 14 10 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. 32. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 17. 19. 22. 21. 21. 19. 16. 15. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 33. 48. 53. 54. 50. 47. 42. 36. 31. 24. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 99.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4.3% 15.5% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.2% 9.0% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 6.9% 10.5% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING