* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 54 64 75 84 86 84 83 80 72 66 61 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 54 64 75 84 86 84 83 80 72 66 61 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 61 69 71 69 66 61 54 47 40 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 13 13 11 14 18 20 19 14 9 2 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 3 0 -2 4 0 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 60 56 60 61 62 62 84 61 38 28 53 44 52 38 8 167 138 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.7 25.4 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 160 162 160 153 149 143 143 138 132 118 106 92 85 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 74 76 79 78 79 81 80 77 78 76 72 67 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 11 11 13 16 20 24 26 26 28 28 27 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 5 4 14 13 31 31 46 39 31 41 63 63 66 73 60 200 MB DIV 53 67 63 69 88 125 122 162 123 86 118 83 56 32 6 -6 9 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -8 -3 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 568 547 535 527 520 462 416 428 461 598 657 710 764 880 1038 1137 1250 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 33 31 29 26 16 10 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 20. 23. 22. 23. 22. 18. 16. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 24. 34. 45. 54. 56. 54. 53. 50. 42. 36. 31. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 99.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 22.1% 17.9% 16.5% 0.0% 18.3% 16.8% 33.7% Logistic: 1.6% 15.5% 4.9% 3.0% 1.1% 7.4% 18.1% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% Consensus: 3.4% 13.5% 7.8% 6.5% 0.4% 8.7% 12.1% 15.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##