* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 63 72 81 83 87 83 79 71 68 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 63 72 81 83 87 83 79 71 68 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 33 37 42 49 55 63 68 67 62 55 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 17 11 17 13 13 8 3 11 17 23 20 18 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -1 -4 -1 -2 -1 4 1 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 64 65 70 63 45 64 82 91 45 2 8 35 47 57 40 68 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.8 28.0 26.6 25.0 24.0 23.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 153 154 157 158 157 157 153 154 146 132 116 105 102 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 73 75 76 79 80 81 83 83 77 76 75 65 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 10 11 15 16 19 20 24 24 26 25 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 27 16 6 5 13 12 13 18 37 37 40 59 74 86 87 200 MB DIV 53 53 47 45 54 73 142 177 169 138 119 64 76 42 0 -9 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -7 -6 -7 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 579 582 571 560 541 513 461 395 327 238 218 331 334 543 824 1127 1369 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.7 19.2 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.5 98.1 98.7 99.3 100.7 101.8 102.6 103.3 104.2 106.1 108.6 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 9 13 16 17 17 16 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 24 25 26 26 22 22 24 20 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 38. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 10. 13. 17. 17. 21. 19. 20. 17. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 24. 38. 47. 56. 59. 62. 58. 54. 46. 43. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 96.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 14.4% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.9% 9.1% 9.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##