* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 09/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 43 50 54 56 56 56 55 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 32 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 20 20 18 21 20 18 6 13 23 20 21 22 17 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 1 5 6 1 1 3 3 6 4 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 56 53 52 55 54 49 57 74 23 353 352 351 358 356 359 337 287 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.7 28.3 29.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 150 150 150 150 151 151 142 144 148 147 149 143 148 154 158 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 4 3 3 5 3 5 5 7 6 8 5 9 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 86 84 87 87 86 88 87 87 85 84 84 83 80 76 70 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 35 37 40 40 45 43 41 57 71 74 73 84 60 49 52 200 MB DIV 112 75 108 127 129 140 137 103 92 89 86 55 24 16 -7 24 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 5 -4 1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 382 384 382 369 353 279 182 47 -91 -186 -245 -290 -255 -89 -60 -20 -20 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.2 14.1 15.4 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.1 95.2 95.3 95.5 96.0 96.6 97.0 97.2 97.9 99.1 100.7 102.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 3 4 7 7 6 7 10 11 13 15 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 9 8 7 9 13 7 10 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 18. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. 28. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 95.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 5.6% 33.5% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.1% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% 11.2% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##