* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 09/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 43 48 55 53 54 57 59 60 62 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 43 48 55 43 33 29 28 27 31 33 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 21 25 26 26 27 31 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 16 17 19 19 21 20 12 12 16 16 9 8 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 5 4 2 0 5 4 9 4 SHEAR DIR 39 45 53 53 51 43 54 73 76 82 50 70 94 91 111 132 348 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 147 146 146 149 150 150 147 144 147 153 155 154 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -52.9 -53.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 5 5 3 5 4 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 5 10 700-500 MB RH 82 85 86 84 87 88 88 88 87 86 86 86 86 85 82 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 55 59 52 50 53 46 36 24 14 14 21 38 46 38 0 34 200 MB DIV 108 109 126 116 135 137 146 124 158 120 112 65 86 55 86 65 12 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 5 -1 1 2 0 -3 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 329 325 324 323 322 303 222 142 58 -37 -82 -82 -48 -5 11 31 11 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.3 16.9 17.2 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.0 96.2 96.6 97.0 97.4 97.6 97.8 98.2 98.9 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 7 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 10 10 10 12 14 14 12 11 12 16 18 17 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -4. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 23. 28. 35. 33. 34. 37. 39. 40. 42. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 95.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 15.9% 6.5% 3.9% 1.1% 20.7% 66.5% 35.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.5% 5.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 6.9% 22.2% 11.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##